Early tracking is starting to come in for the opening weekend of Shazam!, and it’s looking like it will fall in the $40M to $45M range. This is keeping consistent with the long-range tracking that came out in early February, so it looks like this will hold.
While this may not seem like a spectacular opening in the wake of Captain Marvel opening to $153M, it’s a matter of expectations and budgets. Shazam! is estimated to have cost around $100M before marketing, which, in most cases, when added in with foreign fees, is double the budget again. On a typical film, you can expect a three times opening weekend multiplier to guess the final domestic gross. That puts Shazam! at $120M domestic and needing only $80M foreign to ‘break even.’ If this film is as good as it looks, this isn’t going to be the slightest bit of an issue.
Add in the early screenings happening on March 23, and it’s clear Warner Bros. has no worries about this film doing well. Word of mouth is going to be huge out of those early screenings, and that could shift things even more.
It may not end up doing Aquaman numbers, but Shazam! is going to do just fine.
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