It looks as though the estimates were a bit low for Shazam‘s opening weekend.
Projections for the opening weekend of Shazam! had been running towards the mid to high $40 millions, but now it’s looking at $51 to $54M. There numbers do include the early showing on Thursday night as well which was around $5.5M. When you include the revenue from the previews a few weeks back, Shazam! could be up around $58M domestic by the end of the weekend.
A mixture of strong reviews for Shazam!, an A- CinemaScore, and word of mouth from the previews has added up to a strong start. The audience thus far is skewing male with 52% under the age of 25, and 66% of the audience overall.
It looks to easily take first place for the weekend with Dumbo – last weeks number one – projected to drop as much as 59% and land in second place. Second place should go to Pet Sematary, Jordan Peele’s Us looks as though it will come in fourth, and Captain Marvel will round out the top five.
The big test for any film as to how far it can go is how the second weekend performs. Unless you come in with a crazy opening weekend, the rule of thumb is a 50% or less drop means you’ll have a decent run. A drop of more than 50% and then you have to study things a bit closer as to what may have caused it. There are four wide releases next weekend – defined as any movie opening on more than 2,000 screens – so it could be a tough run next weekend just from the amount of competition. We’ll just have to wait and see.